France in a New Political Era (cepInput)
France in a new political era: the French government should look for a robust parliamentary majority to preserve political stability in times of unprecedented crises. The Centre de Politique Européenne (cep) Paris has analysed the political situation in France and recommends to keep on looking for a long-term commitment with the conservative party LR to avoid political and economic instability.
“We live an unprecedented era in French politics since the second round of the legislative elections in June: a five-year-term president has been successfully reelected for the first time in the 5th Republic’s history, but at the expense of his absolute majority” Victor Warhem, economist at the cep in Paris, says. Indeed, the reelected president and his government led by Elisabeth Borne has been forced to implement a new strategy to pass laws in the French National Assembly, given their relative majority of 250 seats, 39 seats away from the absolute majority.
“So far, the government has succeeded in building compromises, essentially with the conservative party LR which votes 75% of the time like Macron’s party Renaissance during the first month of legislature” Ariane Bertrand, a policy analyst at cep Paris, who wrote the analysis with Warhem, adds. “However, the new parliamentary session will be more difficult for the government as it will try to pass controversial texts – including the 2023 budget”, she continues.
France must avoid political instability in the coming times, given the troubled global context. “Yet, there are many challenges ahead, given the legislative program of the program of the new parliamentary session”, the director of cep Paris Marc Uzan warns. The French government wants to pass unpopular reforms as soon as this fall on unemployment benefits and energy sobriety. It is also organizing a concertation with social partners to pass a pension reform next year. “Despite the risk of political deadlock in the National Assembly, the looming recession in 2023 should convince deputies to find consensus in order to avoid intensifying adverse economic effects”, Victor Warhem concludes.