Italy at the Brink of a Political Landslide (cepAdhoc)
In Italy's parliamentary elections on 25 September, the extreme right under Giorgia Meloni looks set to win. The right-wing populist is considered particularly Eurosceptic. Nevertheless, the Centro Politiche Europee ROMA (cep) does not expect an anti-EU political course. According to the author, the room for manoeuvre of a government of right-wing extremists and centre-right parties were too small for that.
"The situation is different from Hungary or Poland," says Andrea De Petris. The scientific director of the cep in Rome has analysed possible constellations after the election. Giorgia Meloni and Matteo Salvini of the Lega are dependent on moderate partners to form a government with a majority. Brussels also has very effective and efficient instruments to contain right-wing populist governments, as the example of Hungary has shown.
"Above all, Italy's economy will be even more dependent on EU financial aid and a trusting relationship with the ECB in the future," explains De Petris. A break with Brussels and Frankfurt would severely jeopardise the recovery of production and employment in important sectors of the economy, with corresponding negative effects on the responsible political forces, the cep expert emphasises.
Otherwise, according to De Petris, the paradox of a Eurosceptic government would arise, which at the same time would accuse the EU of not doing enough for Italy financially. "An alliance under Meloni would be virtually condemned to curb its anti-European stance. This would make it toothless from the point of view of right-wing hardliners," De Petris is convinced.