This archive contains all documents published by cep over the last few years:
cepAdhoc: Incisive comment on current EU policy issues.
cepPolicyBrief: Concise 4-page reviews of EU proposals (Regulations, Directives, Green Papers, White Papers, Communications) – including a brief summary and economic and legal assessments.
cepInput: Impulse to current discussions of EU policies.
cepStudy: Comprehensive examination of EU policy proposals affecting the economy.
With a “European Investment Stabilisation Function” eurozone countries experiencing an economic shock are to receive loans and interest subsidies to finance public investment. That, at least, is the Commission’s proposal to further stabilise the eurozone.
20 years after the introduction of the euro, cep has analysed which countries have gained from the euro and which ones have lost out. This involved an analysis of how high the per-capita GDP of a specific eurozone country would have been if the euro had not been introduced.
As part of a Reform Support Programme, the Commission plans to make available around € 22 billion to EU Member States for structural reforms. For this purpose, the EU Commission has proposed a Regulation.
Greece is still not creditworthy. The country has received €289 billion in financial assistance for eight years, but there is still a long way to go to regain its creditworthiness. This is the result of the updated cepDefault-Index on the occasion of the expiry of the third EU adjustment programme for Athens on 20 August.
The EU Commission wants to support structural reforms in the Member States in order to strengthen their macroeconomic resilience in the event of crises. The Commission intends to stabilise the euro area and to support euro-area candidate countries with introduction of the euro. For this purpose, a realignment and an increase in funds for the “Structural Reform Support Programme” is proposed.
The EU Commission wants to introduce a “reform delivery tool” to provide financial support for structural reforms in the Member States and test it in a pilot phase. In cep’s view, financial support by way of the reform delivery tool may facilitate necessary structural reforms and thereby improve the stability of the eurozone.
With the creation of an EU Finance Minister, the European Commission wants to improve coordination of economic policy in the EU. With this aim, he will combine three offices into one - EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Union, Chair of the Eurogroup and Chair of the Board of Governors of the European Monetary Fund.
The EU Commission wants to use a "stabilisation function" to protect Member States, and particularly eurozone countries, from the consequences of an economic shock. For this purpose, it has submitted a Communication which has been taken up by the German grand coalition. Although the stabilisation function reduces the risk of a state having to apply for financial aid, cep nevertheless takes a critical view of the idea.
As the cepDefault-Index shows, the trends in creditworthiness over the last year have varied between the eurozone countries. Thus the ability to repay debts of two-thirds of eurozone countries (including Germany) is steadily increasing whilst in others it has been falling continuously or is already lost.
The creditworthiness of Greece and Portugal continues to decline. This is the conclusion reached by cep, which has just updated its Default-Index for these two countries. In the case of Greece, the three rescue packages undertaken since 2010 have, in cep’s view, done nothing to change this. Sooner or later, Greece will therefore need a fourth rescue package.
The United Kingdom's creditworthiness is declining. This is the result of the latest cepDefault-Index 2017. The main reason for the decline is the population’s high propensity to consume: since 2012, the population of the United Kingdom has consumed more than the total available income. Moreover, the competitiveness of the British economy declined for years.
The turmoil threatening the very existence of the EU continues. Evidence for this is provided by the cepDefault-Index 2017. The cep authors point out that Greece in particular remains uncreditworthy and that there is no sign of any reversal in the trend. Apart from Greece; Italy, Latvia, Portugal, Slovenia and Cyprus indicate declining creditworthiness which has in addition become firmly established.
Calculating redistribution in the European Union has so far been based exclusively on the EU budget. Its figures are used to determine the "net recipients" and "net contributors". In cep's view, this falls short. A comprehensive Study now shows which countries profited most from the redistribution instruments in the EU between 2008 and 2015.
The cepDefault-Index 2016 shows that for a large number of eurozone countries - Finland, Slovenia, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece - falling creditworthiness has become firmly established; a development which sooner or later will result in creditworthiness being lost altogether. Another danger is looming in that many eurozone economies are seeing a diminution of capital stock.
The EU wants to strengthen "economic policy coordination, convergence and solidarity" in the eurozone. It therefore proposes the creation of four Unions: an Economic Union, a Financial Union, a Fiscal Union and a Political Union. This cepPolicyBrief deals with the Political Union which covers strengthening parliamentary control in the European Semester, the unified external representation of the eurozone in the IMF and the establishment of a "Treasury".
The EU wants to strengthen "economic policy coordination, convergence and solidarity" in the eurozone. It therefore proposes the creation of four Unions: an Economic Union, a Financial Union, a Fiscal Union and a Political Union. This cepPolicyBrief deals with the Fiscal Union which involves the establishment of a European Fiscal Board and the creation of a "macroeconomic stabilisation function".
The EU wants to strengthen "economic policy coordination, convergence and solidarity" in the eurozone. It therefore proposes the creation of four Unions: an Economic Union, a Financial Union, a Fiscal Union and a Political Union. This cepPolicyBrief deals with the Financial Union which comprises a Capital Markets Union and a Banking Union supplemented by a common deposit guarantee scheme.