Trump has won – consequences for Europe

cep-Director Prof. Lüder Gerken:

"There is, of course, no need for alarm or even panic at the election result. Yes, Trump's election campaign was populist in the extreme, but he is certainly no fool. The very fact that he is not a professional politician means that he will be surrounded by advisors to keep him from acts of folly.

Nevertheless, the consequences of his election for the EU's relationship with the US are anything but beneficial:

Trade policy: One of the main themes of the US election campaign was the economy. Trump wants to provide the US economy with much greater protection against global competition. He wants to scrap NAFTA and stop TTIP negotiations. He is likely to succeed in the latter, even if many large US corporations oppose it. This sort of American protectionism is highly undesirable for Europe, although no doubt TTIP opponents here will be jubilant. Surprising therefore that left wingers, like Bernd Riexinger, should be so outspoken in their opposition to Trump.

Climate policy: Trump wants to cancel the Paris Climate Treaty and stop payments to UN climate programmes. This will significantly hamper international climate protection efforts, if not stop them altogether. On its own, Europe's possible contribution to emissions reduction is much too small to have any effect.

Foreign policy: Trump will be much tougher on asserting American interests than his predecessor. This applies both to US policy in Eastern Europe and the Middle East as well as within NATO, where US allies will have to pay more towards the cost of armaments. The result of this will be new attempts to establish a European defence and foreign policy which, of course, have little chance of becoming reality due to a lack of agreement between the EU Member States on this issue."