This archive contains all documents published by cep over the last few years:
cepAdhoc: Incisive comment on current EU policy issues.
cepPolicyBrief: Concise 4-page reviews of EU proposals (Regulations, Directives, Green Papers, White Papers, Communications) – including a brief summary and economic and legal assessments.
cepInput: Impulse to current discussions of EU policies.
cepStudy: Comprehensive examination of EU policy proposals affecting the economy.
The EU Commission wants to use a "stabilisation function" to protect Member States, and particularly eurozone countries, from the consequences of an economic shock. For this purpose, it has submitted a Communication which has been taken up by the German grand coalition. Although the stabilisation function reduces the risk of a state having to apply for financial aid, cep nevertheless takes a critical view of the idea.
As the cepDefault-Index shows, the trends in creditworthiness over the last year have varied between the eurozone countries. Thus the ability to repay debts of two-thirds of eurozone countries (including Germany) is steadily increasing whilst in others it has been falling continuously or is already lost.
The creditworthiness of Greece and Portugal continues to decline. This is the conclusion reached by cep, which has just updated its Default-Index for these two countries. In the case of Greece, the three rescue packages undertaken since 2010 have, in cep’s view, done nothing to change this. Sooner or later, Greece will therefore need a fourth rescue package.
The United Kingdom's creditworthiness is declining. This is the result of the latest cepDefault-Index 2017. The main reason for the decline is the population’s high propensity to consume: since 2012, the population of the United Kingdom has consumed more than the total available income. Moreover, the competitiveness of the British economy declined for years.
The turmoil threatening the very existence of the EU continues. Evidence for this is provided by the cepDefault-Index 2017. The cep authors point out that Greece in particular remains uncreditworthy and that there is no sign of any reversal in the trend. Apart from Greece; Italy, Latvia, Portugal, Slovenia and Cyprus indicate declining creditworthiness which has in addition become firmly established.
Calculating redistribution in the European Union has so far been based exclusively on the EU budget. Its figures are used to determine the "net recipients" and "net contributors". In cep's view, this falls short. A comprehensive Study now shows which countries profited most from the redistribution instruments in the EU between 2008 and 2015.
The cepDefault-Index 2016 shows that for a large number of eurozone countries - Finland, Slovenia, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece - falling creditworthiness has become firmly established; a development which sooner or later will result in creditworthiness being lost altogether. Another danger is looming in that many eurozone economies are seeing a diminution of capital stock.